Jurassic World: Rebirth – How Much Scarlett Johansson’s Dino Epic Needs to Earn to Be a Box Office Hit

Universal Pictures is set to relaunch its iconic dinosaur franchise with Jurassic World: Rebirth, hitting theaters on July 4, 2025. Featuring Scarlett Johansson, Jonathan Bailey, and Mahershala Ali, the film marks a fresh start for the series under the direction of Gareth Edwards, known for Rogue One and Godzilla. But with a budget of $180 million, what will it take for this new chapter to be deemed a success?

💰 The Box Office Benchmark: $450 Million Globally

To turn a profit, Jurassic World: Rebirth needs to gross at least $450 million worldwide, factoring in not only production costs but also marketing and distribution. This is in line with the standard industry rule of thumb — a film must earn 2.5 times its production budget to break even.

Interestingly, this reboot is more cost-conscious than its predecessors. Fallen Kingdom (2018) and Dominion (2022) each reportedly had combined production and marketing budgets exceeding $500 million. Rebirth, by comparison, is a more conservative financial play — one that gives Universal the chance to score big with a smaller investment.

🦖 What’s the Story?

Set five years after Dominion, the film sees dinosaurs largely confined to tropical zones. Johansson plays Zora Bennett, a scientist on a high-risk expedition to a remote island, only to encounter genetically mutated dinosaurs far more terrifying than anything seen before. The supporting cast includes Rupert Friend, Ed Skrein, and Manuel Garcia-Rulfo, with the film leaning heavily into sci-fi tension and visual spectacle — a noticeable shift from earlier franchise installments.

📊 Opening Weekend Projections

Rebirth is expected to benefit from the US Independence Day weekend, with early screenings starting Wednesday, July 2. Projections suggest a five-day domestic opening of $115–$135 million, possibly reaching $145 million with strong reviews and audience buzz.

Although this would mark the lowest opening in the Jurassic World series — the original film opened to $208 million, Fallen Kingdom to $148 million, and Dominion to $145 million — Rebirth doesn't need to match those figures due to its relatively modest budget.

🧬 A Soft Reboot with a New Vision

Unlike previous entries, Rebirth features no returning legacy characters and takes a self-contained narrative approach. This makes it a true soft reboot and potentially more accessible to newcomers unfamiliar with the franchise's past. With a modern, tighter script and fresh faces, Universal is hoping to attract a broader, younger audience while reinvigorating the aging brand.

🎬 The Road Ahead

Success won’t come easy. Jurassic World: Rebirth is releasing alongside major summer titles like Marvel’s Fantastic Four: First Steps and James Gunn’s Superman — both likely to draw heavy box office attention. However, with its established fan base and global appeal, Rebirth could still rise above the competition.

If it clears the $450 million mark, the film could not only be a financial success but also revitalize a franchise that had started to show signs of creative fatigue.